Nasr Khan

10 Decisions

Pre-mortem builder

If this decision fails a year from now, what is the most likely reason, and what do we do about it today?

For CEOs, CFOs and investment committees, before a big call. Takes about five minutes with your team.

The decision

1What you're deciding

Each type loads seven common reasons it fails, with owners and ratings to start from.

2Why it failed

Imagine it's the review date and the decision has failed. For each reason, pick from the library of 62, name an owner, and rate how likely it is and how much damage it would do. Untick reasons that don't apply.

The answer

Every reason, by likelihood and damage

Less likelyFix before you commitMore likely

The three most likely failures

Risk register

ReasonScoreOwnerWatch for

The page to bring to the meeting

Take the result with you

A PDF report with your inputs, results, charts and method. Or the same as plain text for an email.

How this tool works

What it does

A pre-mortem runs a post-mortem before the decision. You assume the plan has already failed and list why. People find more reasons this way than when they ask what might go wrong, because the failure feels real.

Pick one of seventeen decision types and the tool loads seven common reasons it fails. Swap any reason for another from a library of 62, name an owner, and rate each one. The tool ranks them and turns the top three into a page for the meeting.

What you enter

  • The decision. Its type, a one-line description and the date you'll look back.
  • The reasons. Pick each from the library, grouped by customers, sales, product, people, money, risk and competitors. Name an owner. Rate how likely it is and how much damage it would do, from 1 to 5. Untick reasons that don't apply.

Run it with the people who'll carry the decision out. Ask each person to rate on their own first, then compare.

What you get

  • The grid. Every reason placed by likelihood and damage. The shaded corner, scoring 12 or more, is what to fix before you commit.
  • The top three. Ranked by likelihood × damage, with the early warning sign to watch and the action to take now.
  • The risk register. Every reason with its score, owner and warning sign.
  • The notebook page and a PDF report, ready for the decision memo.

Sources

  • Klein, G. (2007). Performing a project premortem. Harvard Business Review, 85(9), 18–19. Klein cites research by Mitchell, Russo and Pennington (1989): imagining that an event has already happened raised people's ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%. Summary via the Public Health Foundation.
  • The failure reasons, warning signs and actions on this page are common patterns, written as a starting point. Replace them with your own.
See answer