Nasr Khan

13 AI

AI sales channel: profit and offer rules

Are orders from AI shopping agents adding profit, or moving orders we'd get anyway? And which offers can an agent make on its own?

For CEOs, CFOs and commerce leaders, and for travel and marketplace teams. Takes about five minutes. Opens with an example.

Your channel, orders and offers

1The channel and its orders

Picking a channel fills a typical mix of where its orders come from (step 2). Measure your own mix.

Fills typical order values, costs and returns as a starting point.

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Some AI channels charge a fee on agent checkouts. OpenAI charged 4% before it moved ChatGPT checkout into merchants' apps in March 2026. Check your admin or contract.

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Product feeds, integration, monitoring the agent, and staff time.

2Where these orders would have come from

Being credited with an order doesn't make it new. A holdout test tells you: switch the channel off for some products or regions, and see how many orders you lose.

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3Offer rules for the agent
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As a share of the order value, all concessions added up.

What the agent may offer
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The answer

Thin

Part 1: Is the channel adding profit?

Where an order's value goes, by route

The month, once moved orders are counted

Profit a month, by share of genuinely new orders

Part 2: Which offers can the agent make?

Profit left after an offer, against your floor

Every combination the agent could offer

Offer rules to agree with finance and marketing

    Take the result with you

    A PDF report with your inputs, results, charts and method. Or the same as plain text for an email.

    How this tool works

    What it does

    AI shopping agents can now find products, build offers and check out. An order credited to an AI channel isn't always a new order. Some would have come through your own site, some through a marketplace.

    Part 1 counts what each order would have earned on its old route. Part 2 tests the offers an agent may make against your profit floor and its authority. A discount and free delivery can each be fine alone and break the floor together.

    What you enter

    • The channel and its orders. Volume, order value, product cost, fees, delivery, support, returns and running cost.
    • Where orders would have come from. New, moved from your own site, or moved from a marketplace, with each route's costs.
    • Offer rules. Your profit floor, how much the agent can give without approval, and the concessions it may combine.

    What you get

    • The channel's real profit after the orders it moves, and the share of new orders it needs to break even.
    • Every offer combination, marked: the agent can offer it, it needs approval, or it breaks your floor.
    • Offer rules for finance, marketing and the platform team, and a PDF.

    Try it: move the "Genuinely new orders" slider. The credited revenue stays the same, and the profit swings.

    The maths, assumptions and sources

    Profit per order = kept orders × (price − product cost) − channel and payment fees − delivery − support − returns × handling cost. A returned order refunds the price and brings the product back; fees and delivery are lost. Your own site also carries the marketing you'd have spent per order. A marketplace takes its commission and handles payment.

    The channel's monthly profit = new orders × the AI route's profit + moved orders × (AI route's profit − old route's profit) − running cost. An offer lowers the price (percentage or coupon) or adds a cost (free delivery, a gift). The agent can make an offer alone when it stays above your floor, within its limit, and within the number of concessions allowed.

    This tool doesn't predict conversion lift, and it doesn't enforce rules in any platform. It defines and tests the rules you propose.

    • Google, Direct Offers (May 2026): brands set promotions, eligible products and guardrails; Gemini builds a deal, such as a bundle, for each search.
    • Nuvei (April 2026): OpenAI's 4% Instant Checkout fee was dropped in March 2026 as checkout moved into merchants' apps.
    • Ecommerce Platforms (July 2026): Shopify charges a per-channel fee on agentic orders, shown in each merchant's admin.
    See answer